Is There a Path to Victory?
The story: UConn will head down to UCF at the worst possible time as it remains big underdogs on Saturday in Orlando.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: UConn is +44 in the point spread, an amount we can’t even fathom laying with anything more than a couple of nickels. The Knights are also in a bad mood after a 35-34 loss to Pittsburgh last Saturday. That’s UCF’s first loss in the regular season in almost three years and the Knights will enter AAC play with something to prove. The Knights won’t be in the mix for College Football Playoff anymore (if they ever were) but are still very much in play for the Group of 5 bid into the Cotton Bowl for this year. No. 16 Boise State is now the top-rated G5 team with UCF No. 22.
KEY TO THE GAME: Can the Huskies stay with the high-scoring Knights? UConn’s offense hasn’t put up big numbers this year and the run game has fizzled. Freshman QB Jack Zergiotis impressed in his debut with 275 yards passing but regressed a week later with 90 yards and a brutal pick-six against Indiana. Randy Edsall is sticking with his freshman QB for now, and the best way to help him will be getting something out of a run game that has disappointed this year. Kevin Mensah is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry and Art Thompkins, an explosive player at Toledo, is not much better at 3.9. If UConn is going to have any chance, the run game is going to have to show up.
HEY! THE D IS BETTER: The Huskies aren’t the sieve on the defense of a year ago. Three games, even with two losses, has proved that. UConn is giving up 324 yards a game and 5.3 yards per play and 30 points per game. That isn’t great, but it beats last year’s averages of 618 yards a game, 8.9 per play and a staggering 50 points per game. The defense is banged up with LB D.J. Morgan and S Tyler Coyle both nursing injuries. Morgan has 21 tackles in three games despite being limited by injuries against Indiana last week. According to reports, both Morgan and Coyle should play.
ABOUT UCF: This is where the game gets scary. UCF’s offense is explosive and is averaging 47.2 points per game led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who, as a true freshman, has passed for 1,057 yards and 11 TDs since replacing Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush. The Knights were impressive early in the season and destroyed Stanford 45-27 before an inexplicable loss at Pittsburgh last week.
BOTTOM LINE: We normally like games as big underdogs and giving it the old college try. We are less enthused about this game. It isn’t losing, or even a potential blowout, that has us already turning the page; rather, it’s the the timing of the game. UConn will likely be 1-3 and facing questions about where the program is going. Objectively, on the field, the team is better, stronger and is more competitive. The small improvements are there on defense and the offense has some young players with ability, but they will have nothing to show in the win column and that is going to get difficult to overcome heading into October.
Morning Reads
JONES MAKE TRANSITION: Kevon Jones, who started as a freshman at LB, has transitioned nicely to his role as a defensive end for the Huskies. (Hartford Courant)
HURLEY SPEAKS: Dan Hurley joined Hearst Media’s Dave Borges for a podcast. (Hearst CT Media)
