West is the Region of Doom!

The Story: The UConn men, a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, open against No. 13 Iona on Friday as one of the top 10 favorites, according to the numbers and the betting odds. Do the geeks and gamblers know something we don’t?

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: The end of the world is upon us. After decades of fighting the nerds, we here at The Daily are joining them. There is a battle brewing in the NCAA about the advanced statistical formulas and whether they are predictive.

• The eye test — human beings ranking the teams based on what they see and know — has been the predominant way that teams have been seeded in the past. There’s been an advent of sites, such as KenPom, the NCAA’s own NET ranking, and Team Rankings, that offer different rankings based on metrics. But the NCAA selection committee relied on the eye test once again.

• After a day of digesting this year’s seedings, let’s look at some interesting ways in which the computer and the committee differed. Mind you, all year, UConn and Tennessee have been ranked in the top 10-15 by the computers. That meant little to committee members.

• UConn and Tennessee, No. 4 and No. 5 in the nation according to KenPom, are No. 4 seeds. That puts the Huskies and Volunteers nearly 10 spots lower due to the eye test.

• One team the committee loves more than the metrics? Kansas State, a nine-loss team in the Big 12, is ranked No. 24 in KenPom, six spots behind No. 8 seed Memphis — yet K-State is a No. 3 seed. The Wildcats are 13 spots higher on the S-curve than they are in KenPom’s metrics.

• If the top four tournament seeds were based on metrics alone, they would be Houston, UCLA, Alabama and UConn. Otherwise, they represent two No. 1 seeds, a No. 2 seed, and — of course — a No. 4 seed.

• Why do the metrics rate UConn so high? Because it’s all about numbers and statistical formulas, and UConn is one of four teams in the country ranked in the top 10 in adjusted offense (7) and defense (18).

• Do adjusted ratings matter? Since 2000, only one national title team, led by college hoops legend Shabazz Napier in 2014, did not rank in the top 20 in adjusted offense and defense. If we can put on our nerd hat, that’s a good data point.

• Can we put Napier in the National Collegiate Basketball Hall of Fame yet?

THE REGION OF DOOM: The World Cup has the Group of Death. This year’s NCAA Tournament has the West Region, otherwise called the Region of Doom. Let’s take a look at what the nerds think of the West Region.

• The top five seeds are ranked among KenPom’s top 11 teams in the nation: Kansas (9), UCLA (2), Gonzaga (8), UConn (4) and St. Mary’s (11).

• Is KenPom flawed? That’s what we will hear from the eye test people. But the NCAA’s NET rankings also have the top five seeds in the West among the top 11 teams in the country.

PUNDITS’ TAKE: We mentioned yesterday that ESPN’s Jay Bilas has the Huskies in the Final Four, though he walked back UConn winning the national title. Bilas put it out there for the record, picking all 63 games of the NCAA Tournament. God bless Jay.

• We get on the writers a lot for hating the nerds. ChatGPT is going to end sports writing, but even the writers have UConn in the top 10 as the Huskies finished No. 10 in the final Associated Press poll.

VEGAS’ TAKE: Let’s put this to an end. Oddsmakers have a take on the top contenders for the national title. When money is on the line, there is no bias. Odds to win the NCAA title:

DON’T BET YOUR HOUSE JUST YET: We are balanced here, and the metrics also show one thing we should be concerned about — Iona. The No. 13 seed out of the MAAC, the same conference that spawned Saint Peter’s a year ago, is one of the live underdogs in the tournament, with a 25 percent chance to knock off the Huskies.

BOTTOM LINE: Nerds vs. Eye Test? It’s a long week, and by Friday, none of this is going to matter. We’ll get our answer at the end of March.

— John Silver

Geno: ‘No Easy Games’ in NCAA Tournament

The Story: Even though it seems like the UConn women got a favorable draw as a No. 2 seed in the Seattle 3 Region, Geno Auriemma wants to pump the brakes before No. 15 seed Vermont comes to town for a first-round game at 3 p.m. on Saturday.

THE GOLDEN ROAD: The Huskies (29-5) appear to have a clear path to their 15th consecutive Final Four appearance as they landed in the same region as No. 1 seed Virginia Tech and are joined by No. 3 seed Ohio State and No. 4 seed Tennessee.

• Geno didn’t want to pick up that line of thought, however, understanding how topsy-turvy the season has been. The Huskies have had 10 players healthy for only five games, lost Azzi Fudd to a right knee injury for two significant stretches, and endured difficult-to-swallow losses to Marquette and St. John’s.

• The only complicating factor for the Huskies may be the travel. They will go from hosting Vermont and the winner of the game between No. 7 seed Baylor and No. 10 seed Alabama to playing the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in Seattle — only the second time, and the first since a road game against Washington in November 2000, that they’ll play a game in the city. “If you’re going to [have only two regionals], why not have both of them in the middle of the country where everybody only has to go halfway?” Geno said.

WHAT (ELSE) DID GENO SAY? “It was a little bit of a surprise that we’re going to Seattle, but you first have to win two games. Regardless of what region you’re in, job No. 1 is you have to win two games. And that’s no different than it is every other year. And every year people go, ‘Oh, that’s a tough bracket.’ ‘Oh, that’s an easy bracket.’ ‘Oh, that’s a tough matchup.’ ‘Oh, that’s an easy matchup.’ And every year I say the same thing: ‘There are no easy games in the NCAA Tournament.’ Certainly, this year is no exception.”

IS GENO STICKING AROUND? A difficult season interrupted by the death of his mother has led to whispers that Geno might be looking to hang it up soon. Not true, he said yesterday morning, pointing to one reason: The chance to have Fudd and Paige Bueckers finally play together.

• “I was trying to think of how many games they’ve played together. I think it’s less than 20,” Geno said. “And of those 20, I don’t know how many where they were both 100 percent. And Paige said she came to play four years, and she’s played kind of one and three-quarters, so let’s see what happens next year.”

— Zac Boyer

Morning Reads

• It’s March, so it’s time for an update on Kemba Walker: The UConn legend said he’s “not ready to stop playing yet” despite being released after having a cup of coffee with the Mavericks earlier this season. (The Athletic)