Why We Are Bullish on Hurley, UConn
The Story: The NCAA Tournament begins this afternoon, and the UConn men, who open with Iona tomorrow, are, oddly, one of the teams with the buzz to cut down the nets in the Final Four. We like to be a contrarian, but we are honestly bullish on the Huskies’ chances as well.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: The pundits have spoken. Everyone likes the Huskies — except those who antagonize the fans (you know who you are).
• ESPN was all over UConn, of course. Jay Bilas, Rece Davis and Seth Greenberg all had the Huskies in the Final Four or winning in some capacity.
• Bristol bias, you say? The Athletic and former NBA front office honcho John Hollinger also picked the Huskies to reach the Final Four after a deep run.
• Vegas is in on the action as well. SI Sportsbook gives the Huskies the third-best odds to win the national title while almost all others, like Draft Kings and FanDuel, have the Huskies as one of the top eight teams to win.
• What does this all mean? Well, if you pick the Huskies, you aren’t going against the grain.
WHY WE LIKE THE PUNDITS: Just because we are pundits doesn’t mean we always agree with them. This time we think they are spot-on. Here’s our take on why we think the Huskies are going to go on a long run despite being a No. 4 seed.
• UConn’s 14-0 record in nonconference games carries weight, including an obliteration of overall No. 1 seed Alabama, which remains the single most impressive win of the season by any team.
• The Huskies have lost four games since Jan. 18 by a combined nine points.
• The computers have the Huskies as one of the top teams in the tourney. KenPom ranks their adjusted offense at No. 7 and adjusted defense at No. 18. There are only four teams in the top 20 in both, which is an indicator of a top contender.
THE KILL SHOT: Want another metric? There’s something called the Kill Shot, which tracks teams that go on 10-0 runs and those that give up 10-0 runs. The last four national champions had a certain ratio with this metric, meaning they go on many more of these game-deciding runs than they give up. There are six teams in the field with the magic ratio. Guess which team is one of the six?
PASS THE EYE TEST: The games are not played on a spreadsheet. We joked about the nerds early in the week, but the Huskies pass the eye test as well. They have scoring and shooting all over the floor and can score from 3-point range and inside. They can put up to four shooters on the floor, with size and athleticism to boot, and can play a half-court game or one that is 94 feet long.
• Scoring: UConn has scoring at all three levels. Jordan Hawkins, who is averaging 16.7 points per game, is one of the top scoring wings. He has ample inside scoring to complement him, with Adama Sanogo averaging 16.9 points per game. Alex Karaban, Joey Calcaterra, Nahiem Alleyne and Tristen Newton all have 3-point shooting ability and the green light to take those shots.
• Size: Not only can the Huskies shoot, who else brings a 7-foot-2 player like Donovan Clingan off the bench? Clingan and Sanogo are one of the top center combos in the nation and UConn is one of the top teams in offensive rebounding as a result. UConn starts a big backcourt with Newton and Hawkins at 6-foot-5 and Andre Jackson (6-foot-6) and Karaban (6-foot-8) in the frontcourt along with the centers. The size and athleticism of the starting unit makes for a difficult matchup.
Versatility: The size and shooting make the Huskies able to play in various ways. A defensive grind where they dominate the offensive glass? The Huskies can win like that. A shootout where the game is in transition and they need to score from 3-point range? The Huskies have hit double-digit 3s in multiple games this year. That versatility will help this month.
WHY WE PAUSE: Here is the rub: If UConn is this good, how come it has lost eight games? That’s a terrific point, and there are concerns about ballhandling and whether the Huskies can execute late under intense ball pressure. It’s nice that the Huskies’ last four losses are by a total of nine points, but doesn’t that show an inability to win a close game? So far this year, yes.
• UConn hasn’t won a one-possession game all year. In games decided by five points or less, UConn is 0-5. Is that just statistical noise and late free throws or an inability to execute late? It’s enough of a point to give us pause.
• Lastly. UConn doesn’t have a true point guard who is an elite ballhandler and a breakdown one-on-one player. Newton has two triple-doubles this season and is the only capable player off the dribble. He is more of a scorer than a facilitator and he struggles to initiate the offense when he is guarded by smaller and quicker players. When things get tight in the NCAA Tournament, can someone just create a shot one-on-one? We are looking at you, Mr. Hawkins.
BOTTOM LINE: UConn has all the pieces for a Final Four run. We know that a skittish fanbase is worried about Iona considering the Huskies’ losses to No. 10 and No. 12 seeds in the last two years. It’s with good reason. Iona is coached by a Hall of Famer in Rick Pitino and the next-round opponents, No. 5 seed Saint Mary’s or No. 12 seed VCU, won’t be a picnic on Sunday.
• The Huskies are more complete than they have been in recent seasons, however. They have more shooting, size and depth, and in March, talent wins out.
— John Silver
Morning Reads
• Aaliyah Edwards was rewarded for an outstanding season as she was named a third-team All-American. (The UConn Blog)
• Ryan Tverberg has signed with the Maple Leafs now that the men’s hockey team has completed its season. Tverberg was a seventh-round pick of the Leafs in 2020. (The UConn Blog)
