Can Jackson Mitchell (8) and the UConn Huskies take out heavily favored NC State tonight in East Hartford? (Ian Bethune for The UConn Daily)
Time To Dream Against NC State?
THE STORY: UConn football kicks off the 2023 season tonight at Pratt & Whitney Stadium as prohibitive underdogs (+15) against NC State (7:30 p.m., CBSSN).
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: This is a big game for Jim Mora and the Huskies. There is such a thing as momentum in college sports and the late season play of the Huskies a year ago, after a difficult early season schedule, brought UConn back into a bowl game. The program is generating positive vibes and it has raised the stakes for their second season under Mora. From our perspective, a little excitement is a good thing.
• That said, some statistical prognosticators, such as ESPN’s SP+, have the Huskies in the 125 of 133 in preseason ranking, not much better than they were a year ago at the beginning of the season. Others, such as The Athletic, have the Huskies ranked 86 out of a 133 FBS teams. That is the highest we have seen UConn in 10-years, but that isn’t really something to boast about.
• If you think the local buzz thinks the Huskies are better than national expectations, you are right. UConn athletic director Dave Benedict tweeted that it looks like 35,000 fans will be inside Pratt & Whitney Stadium tonight including and overflow of students, who will number at ~8,000 – 33% of the student body. It’s going to be 70 degrees and clear for a football game. Perfect weather.
• UConn is playing its 20th season at the Rent, and it finally has gotten the hang of the marketing and hype that is college football. The Huskies have a Gameday Guide online and checking out @UConnfootball twitter has a slew of slick videos and features, including a hype video narrated by ESPN and UConn great Dan Orlovsky. The marketing and hype campaigns have worked, the only thing missing is for the team to perform on the field.
HOW CAN UCONN WIN? UConn was ranked among the top 40 rushing attacks in the nation a season ago and bring back Devontae Houston (6.9 YPC) and Victor Rosa (11 TDs) in the backfield. Behind a good offensive line, led by All-America candidate Christian Haynes at RG, the Huskies want to use the ground and take shots in the passing game. If the Huskies can run the ball, that +15 line is going to look like stealing from the wiseguys.
• Transfer QB Joe Fagnano, who mastered offensive coordinator Nick Charlton’s offense when both were at Maine, is starting die to his ball control and game control. He has good size at 6-3 and can tuck the ball and run if needed. Most importantly? He doesn’t make mistakes and doesn’t turn the ball over, evidenced by is 1.49% interceptions rate in pass attempts last season. He was solid at FCS Maine, the big question is can he do it against a P5 team like NC State?
• UConn also had to rebuild it’s wide receiver corps. Cam Ross is healthy, and has been productive whenever he has played. The Huskies also added a pair of transfers this offseason that should help.
• LB Jackson Mitchell, a Connecticut native, at linebacker remains one of the more productive players in all the country with 140 tackles a year ago. The defense is expected to be the team’s strength with Eric Watts and Pryce Yates on the DL and a veteran secondary.
ABOUT NC STATE: NC State was No. 12 in the country a year ago when it throttled UConn. The Wolfpack struggled in the ACC season, however, and finished outside the Top 25 rankings. This year’s team has high expectations as it was picked to finish fourth in the ACC, and got one first-place vote.
• Transfer QB Brennan Armstrong is the starter and in the past has shown to be a dangerous quarterback in the air throwing for nearly 4,500 yards with 31 touchdowns in 2021. He struggled last season at Virginia, with less talent around him, and was benched after five games. Can he rekindle what he was in 2021?
• The Wolfpack are also rebuilding the offensive line, after averaging just 3.4 YPC a year ago, but have all-conference talent on the line. It also has to replace three of their top four receivers, but WR Keyon Lesane and the transfer portal may do the trick.
• Defensively is the strength of the team and was top 20 in the nation in multiple categories a year ago. Expectation is it to be one of the best defenses in the ACC, and is strong on the defensive line and in the secondary.
• Why is “Wolfpack” one word and not two? Perplexed we looked it up. Wolfpack is not in the dictionary, but a college decided to brand it as one word to differentiate itself. NC State even got a patent on it.
BOTTOM LINE: Can the Huskies pull off the upset and send UConn Nation into irrational enthusiasm? That is the question of the day, week, month and season. Can the Huskies compete with established P5 teams like NC State, which beat UConn 41-10 a year ago in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score?
• We don’t know. How much better is this UConn team from last year’s, which ended the season strong. What’s the ceiling of this team? It’s a better team than a year ago, and we are about to find out how much better.
— John Silver
UConn athletics opens the books
The Story: The UConn Athletic department released its report on athletics. showing where the money and expenses are coming and going.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: The school still requires a hefty amount of institutional support to meet its $82 million budget, roughly $35 million, but do a good job in explaining what leads to those accounting expenses. Here are some notable highlights:
• UConn athletics brought in $47 million in outside revenue from a year ago including $28 million in donations.
• $16 million of expense is scholarship costs. What does that mean? The university charges the athletic department for scholarship costs, including room, board etc. Yes, that is how accounting works. The university charges athletics for the scholarships, then transfers money to athletics, then back into the university coffers. This is half of the subsidy.
• UConn pays $4 million a year to play at state-owned XL Center and Rentschler Field, and the result is a lost opportunity cost of $7.5 million, per the school, if those were held on campus at university venues.
• Lastly, UConn gets $4 million from its media rights. Power 4 teams (Pac-12 is done) get $30-$40 million per team. This is why UConn was intent on getting into the Big 12 this summer.
BOTTOM LINE: The Huskies did a nice job of PR in the annual report, by citing the fact that eight teams won Big East titles, seven were nationally ranked in their sport and, of course, there was one national title in men’s basketball.
UConn’s media rights are woefully underpaid, and unlocking that revenue stream remains No. 1 on Dave Benedict’s list of things that have to happen. UConn is also not getting any CFP playoff money as an independent in football.
Considering those headwinds, it is remarkable how successful the athletic department is. What could the Huskies do with Rutgers money?
— John Silver
📰 MORNING READS
• Women’s soccer team is having a 3-match home stretch starting against Army tonight (why opposite a football game?) and then on Sunday against New Hampshire. All games are at 7 p.m. and you can watch on UConn+.
• Andy Baylock, former baseball coach and currently alumni affairs for football team is being honored during tonight’s game with a pre-game party of former players, which spans five decades. Coach Baylock is a long-time fixture at UConn and in state of Connecticut sports and has a bionic rotator cuff that we suspect has thrown more batting practice than any human who has ever lived.
• Corrections: OL Ryan Van Denmark made the Bills, we reported the team incorrectly on Wednesday. Also, the date of First Night is Friday Oct. 13.
