UConn running back Victor Rosa is looking for more of these long touchdown runs, such as this 71-yarder against NC State. (Ian Bethune for The UConn Daily)
Will UConn Have All the Answers?
The Story: By now, you know all the particulars – UConn travels to Atlanta to play Georgia State on Saturday (7 p.m., ESPN+) as a road underdog looking for its first victory of the season.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Instead of offering a typical game preview, the Daily has made an executive decision to change things up a bit and answer five key questions.
• But first, in case you were wondering, the weather at kickoff is expected to be in the high-70s and humid, with a chance of isolated thunderstorms.
1. What do you think of UConn being a 2.5 point underdog?
• John Silver: If you’re paying attention, it should be easy money for gamblers. The Huskies are 11-4 against the spread under Jim Mora, and the correction hasn’t happened yet. UConn’s brand was so toxic late in the Randy Edsall 2.0 years — the worst defense ever in FBS and a 1-11 season — that the expectation from uninformed bettors is UConn is terrible. That isn’t the case. UConn was 6-7 last year and beat Liberty, Fresno State and Boston College, while Georgia State was 4-8 and barely beat Rhode Island last week. To me, take UConn and the points as part of a parlay and buy season tickets for basketball.
• Zac Boyer: Yeah, John clearly pays more attention to the betting lines than I do. That’s what happens when you have disposable income, I guess! To me, it’s a sign that going from several poor seasons to a surprise bowl appearance to a reconstructed roster, there’s just concept of what UConn actually is. But don’t they say that a home team gets a three-point boost? That makes this a toss-up.
• David Kull: Initially, I was surprised the Huskies weren’t favored because of how well they played against NC State. But Georgia State won its opening game, is playing at home, and can score in bunches, so maybe I shouldn’t be surprised.
2. What do you expect from Joe Fagnano?
• Silver: I was disappointed in the passing game in Week 1. N.C. State is better than UConn, but the lack of production in the passing game is alarming. UConn hasn’t had a good passing game since Dan Orlovsky left, and we are sick of it. Rhode Island threw for more than 400 yards and four TDs last week. I believe Fagnano and UConn can get 200 yards and two touchdowns tomorrow. Don’t turn the ball over, show a little finesse on intermediate passes, and move the chains.
• Boyer: A better performance than last week. Look, that opening drive was marvelous. I remember thinking, “My goodness. UConn actually has a quarterback!” It’s too bad the Huskies couldn’t script the entire game, though. He’ll be better against a worse defense, but he has to get his timing and rapport down with his receivers. He spent much of the game looking like someone who had never played with the first-team offense before.
• Kull: A much better stat line. Fagnano won’t air it out for 400 yards, but that’s because I expect UConn to be more balanced, with the running attack setting Fagnano up for success in the passing game. I predict he will have a 65-percent completion rate and around 250 passing yards — if the receivers can get open and eliminate the drops.
3. Which matchup intrigues you the most?
• Silver: UConn’s offensive line vs. Georgia State’s defensive line. The Huskies’ running game can be elite. It has several NFL prospects on the offensive line, including Christian Haynes, and I like the explosive ability of Devontae Houston, Victor Rosa and Brian Brewton. Can the Huskies maul the Panthers on the line and create holes for the RBs? Each UConn backs is a home-run threat, and I would like to see the Huskies pound the run game.
• Boyer: I’ll riff a bit off what John said and go with the running backs against Georgia State’s linebackers. We know Mora’s going to want to run the ball, especially with an unproven quarterback, and Houston and Rosa can move the chains. (It also looks like Rosa has added a bit of bulk since last season, so that’s a positive.) If UConn can gain some momentum and find itself in third-and-short situations, it’ll wear the Panthers down.
• Kull: UConn’s LBs vs. Georgia State’s ball carriers. With tackling as a primary focus this week, Jackson Mitchell and company need to fly to the football, finish tackles at first contact, and prevent RB Marcus Carroll and QB Darren Grainger from extending plays.
4. What is biggest key to UConn beating Georgia State?
• Silver: Tackling. UConn was brutal in its opening game, with broken tackles keeping drives alive and frustrating the heck out of Mora. The Panthers can run the ball. They are one of the top rushing offenses in the country, and the Huskies can’t have double-digit tackles from their secondary in this game if they want to come away with a win.
• Boyer: Competent quarterback play. I think this is going to be the key almost every week, and I think UConn will get it sooner rather than later. But think: If the Huskies can get the ground attack going, that gets the play-action game going, and it’s nice to have a quarterback who’s actually capable of throwing the ball in those situations. The bigger question, though, is will it be caught?
• Kull: Keeping Georgia State’s offense off the field. It can’t score standing on the sidelines. Stout defense and winning the time of possession battle will be UConn’s formula for success.
5. What is your final score prediction?
• Silver: UConn, 24-10. I think the Huskies’ running game is going to grind Georgia State to the ground, and I have to believe the passing game will produce a couple of early touchdowns. If UConn gets up early by more than one touchdown, Mora and offensive coordinator Nick Charlton are going to pound the running game and escape with a physical but workmanlike victory. What worries me? The passing game and missed tackles. If the Huskies improve on both, they have nothing to worry about.
• Boyer: UConn, 17-10. I’m not particularly convinced this is going to be one-sided, even if Georgia State struggled against Rhode Island last week. There’s just no way you can ever watch the Huskies play football and think they’re going to roll over their opponent. That remains true here, even if it should be a mismatch.
• Kull: UConn, 35-24. There’s a reason the Panthers were picked to finish near the bottom of the Sun Belt Conference – their defense can’t stop anyone. That will be the case against the Huskies.
HISTORY LESSON: The site of tomorrow’s game is Center Parc Stadium, Georgia State’s home field since 2017. The stadium used to be Turner Field, the home of the Atlanta Braves from 1997 to 2016. It was originally built as Centennial Olympic Stadium for the 1996 Summer Olympics.
— Zac Boyer, John Silver, and David Kull
📰 MORNING READS
• The volleyball team swept Sacred Heart, 3-0, yesterday. Game scores were 25-18. 29-27 and 25-23. Emma Werkmeister had 11 kills for the Huskies.
• There are nine former UConn players on NFL rosters and practice squads as the season kicks off in earnest this weekend.
