Bull’s-Eye on Huskies’ Backs

The Story: UConn is the top team in the country, and not only is it the favorite to win the national title, it’s as close to a consensus favorite as we have seen in some time.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: One year ago, on this very day, we pondered UConn as a trendy pick to win the title and argued about the metrics all pointing the Huskies’ way. But UConn is no longer the trendy pick to win the national title. In fact, the metrics are matching the eye test, and it seems everyone is picking the Huskies to repeat.

• ESPN polled 25 NBA scouts and a slew of coaches about who they’re picking to win their NCAA Tournament. A whopping 20 picked the Huskies to win the title. Many of the anonymous participants acknowledged the back-to-back nature difficulty, but based on what many have seen, they can’t pick against UConn. One coach said of the Huskies: “UConn is the best team I have seen in my 12 years of scouting college basketball.”

• The NBA scouts love the Huskies’ balance and lack of weakness while an admiring coach compared UConn’s offense to that of the Warriors. Yes, the NBA’s marquee team for most of the past decade.

• What does Vegas say? Money continues to pour in late as the sharps have the Huskies at +370 on ESPN Bet.

• Speaking of betting, if you’re in Connecticut, the ability to bet on in-state teams may be coming to a book near you. A bill to allow bets on Connecticut teams has advanced in the State Legislature.

UCONN’S PREMIUM METRICS: Coaches and scouts are giving their opinion. What do the stats say? Per Basketball-Reference, here’s where the Huskies rank nationally:

• Player Efficiency Rating — 2. Donovan Clingan (34.2)
• Win Shares — 9. Cam Spencer (6.6)
• Offensive Win Shares — 6. Spencer (4.5)
• Win Shares Per 40 Minutes — 2. Clingan (.295)
• Box Plus/Minus — 2. Clingan (13.8)
• Offensive Box Plus/Minus — 4. Clingan (8.6)
• Defensive Box Plus/Minus — 5. Clingan (5.2)
• Offensive Rating — 1. Spencer (140.2); 4. Clingan (135.1)
• Block Percentage — 7. Clingan (11.1)

BOTTOM LINE: We know you hate being the favorite. The Huskies have a bull’s-eye on their backs as the defending national champions and are the consensus best team by a wide margin. Does that make you nervous? It shouldn’t.

• There’s plenty of luck involved in winning the NCAA Tournament, but the one guarantee is that what people think of the favorites has no bearing on the actual result. UConn is the best team in the sport. It’s up to the Huskies to deliver on that promise starting tomorrow afternoon in Brooklyn against No. 16 seed Stetson.

— John Silver

A Look at the Portland 3 Regional

The Story: The UConn women, the No. 3 seed in the Portland 3 Region, will open the NCAA Tournament on Saturday against No. 14 seed Jackson State — and it seems like the Huskies themselves are the only thing that may stop them from returning to the Final Four.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: UConn (29-5) had its streak of 14 consecutive Final Four appearances ended last season by Ohio State, and as luck would have it, the Buckeyes are the No. 2 seed and loom as a potential Sweet 16 foe again this season.

• The Huskies, who lost 73-61 in Seattle, were outmatched nearly all game a season ago. They committed 25 turnovers, including eight to start the second quarter, while struggling against Ohio State’s press.

• Ohio State, ranked No. 7 in the AP poll, is 25-5 and went 16-2 in the Big Ten. It was the top seed in the conference tournament but surprisingly lost 82-61 to No. 8 seed Maryland in the quarterfinals.

• The Buckeyes will open at home with a first-round game against No. 15 seed Maine, then take on the winner of No. 7 seed Duke and No. 10 seed Richmond if they reach the second round.

CAN UCONN HOLD UP? Depth is always a challenge for the Huskies, especially when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. Their runs the last two seasons were interrupted only by injury, and it seems like that may be the case again this year, too.

• Should UConn earn a rematch with Ohio State, it will be interesting to see how much of a difference Paige Bueckers makes. The guard missed last year’s clash as she was out for the season with a torn ACL.

• All signs point toward Aaliyah Edwards playing in the NCAA Tournament after she broke her nose in the Huskies’ Big East Tournament quarterfinal win over Providence.

• Can a team with only seven players in the rotation, and perhaps only eight who are healthy, win an NCAA title? We’re about to find out, but expectations, rightfully, should be muted. A Final Four appearance might be the most we can expect.

THE HUSKIES’ PATH: UConn opens with Jackson State (26-6, 18-0 SWAC), then will face one of three teams — No. 6 seed Syracuse or the winner of the First Four game between Auburn or Arizona.

• Syracuse, which finished third in the ACC but was knocked out in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament, has one of the nation’s elite scorers in guard Dyaisha Fair. She’s a fifth-year senior who joined the Orange from Buffalo prior to last season who’s averaging 22 points per game this season. Fair scored more than 20 points in each of her last five games and had a season-high 38 points in a win at Boston College on Feb. 4.

• Arizona, which reached the national championship game three years ago, hasn’t advanced beyond the second round each of the last two seasons. The No. 7 seed in the Pac-12 tournament, it beat Washington in the first round before losing to eventual champion USC in the quarterfinals.

• Auburn was also a No. 7 seed in its conference tournament, and it, too, lost in the quarterfinals, falling to runner-up LSU. The Tigers haven’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 2019 and haven’t won a tournament game since 2016.

LURKING ELSEWHERE: Keep an eye on No. 4 seed Virginia Tech, which reached the Final Four last year. The Hokies’ future depends on the health of 6-foot-6 center Elizabeth Kitley, who went down with a left knee injury in a loss at Virginia on March 5 and didn’t play in the ACC Tournament.

• Baylor is the No. 5 seed, but it struggled in the competitive Big 12, and Duke has been surprising but would encounter Ohio State in the second round.

• UConn great and former assistant coach Shea Ralph led Vanderbilt to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014. The Commodores faced Columbia last night in a First Four game, with the winner facing Baylor as a No. 12 seed.

MORE HONORS: Bueckers was named to the Associated Press All-America First Team yesterday afternoon, with Edwards earning an honorable mention. We think it’s the most prestigious All-America team, but the USBWA stole the thunder with its Tuesday announcement that also included Bueckers and Edwards.

— Zac Boyer

Morning Reads

• Christian Haynes played without much fanfare at UConn, but the All-American offensive lineman is a hot commodity in the NFL Draft.

• The baseball won its home opener by knocking off Rhode Island, 14-8. Paul Tammaro had two hits and four RBIs to rally the Huskies (8-11) from an early 5-0 deficit. Ian Cooke picked up his first win by tossing five innings of relief and striking out eight.

• The women’s lacrosse team blasted Columbia, 17-1, led by Abby Charron‘s four goals. The Huskies scored the first 12 goals.

• The softball team stayed hot with its 11th straight win, a 9-5 victory over Yale. The Huskies (15-11) were paced by Grace Jenkins, who had two hits and four RBIs. Meghan O’Neil picked up the win for the Huskies.

Top photo: Alex Karaban shoots over Providence’s Devin Carter. (Ian Bethune for The UConn Daily)